US Jobs Soar By 165K Blowing Away Estimates; Unemployment Rate Drops Putting Dec Rate Hike Back In Play In our preview of the October jobs report , we said that the labor data has rarely looked this solid going into a monthly payrolls report: claims near 57-year lows, the lowest October layoffs since 2023, JOLTS openings up 333K and ADP above expectations.
If anything, the risk is to the upside of the 63K consensus, and the unemployment rate could well tick down. Which, as we noted, was the problem as "a strong print gives Warsh, Hammack and Barkin all the cover they need to hike in December, right as the Nasdaq is coming off its worst day since March 2020.
Goldman's rates desk thinks a single print can't take the hikes out." We said that we agree with this take, and added that the more likely outcome is a decent number that puts December back in play and adds a rates problem to what has so far been an AI problem.