'Low Hire, Low Fire, Low Inspire': Claims Hit 57 Year Lows, Sentiment Still Sucks, And Payrolls Are Next Another week, another print showing that American employers still refuse to fire anyone in any meaningful numbers. Initial jobless claims remain parked near multi-decade lows, plunging to 189k this week (after recent weeks in the mid-to-high 190,000s), confirming that the 'low fire' half of the current labor market is intact.
Last week's print is officially the lowest since 1969... And Continuing claims are holding around 1.7 million Americans... Layoffs simply are not happening at scale. That is the good news, such as it is. The less comforting half is the 'low hire' reality that has now persisted for roughly three years .
September JOLTS showed openings rebounding to 7.52 million and the openings rate at 4.5 percent, yet the hires rate stayed stuck at 3.4 percent with roughly 5.4 million hires. Net payroll growth has averaged in the low-to-mid tens of thousands for most of 2026.