Political Betting Slumps On Prediction Markets As Crypto And Sports Boom Americans head to the voting booths today with Democrats favored to take control of both the House and Senate according to mainstream polls and prediction markets. Attention has shifted to prediction markets, where the implied probability of a Democratic sweep stands at roughly 75%, down slightly from 78% earlier this morning.
The attention on prediction markets over the last few years has not translated into stronger midterm trading. Bloomberg's report from earlier today shows political trading on these platforms has struggled, even as sports and crypto betting have jumped.
Election-related turnover on Kalshi was roughly unchanged in the final week before the midterms compared with the same period before the 2024 presidential election. Polymarket's election volume fell significantly.