Vance's 2028 Odds Tumble After Midterm Bloodbath - And Rubio Isn't The One Cashing In Vice President JD Vance's odds of winning the 2028 Republican nomination tumbled overnight as Democrats absolutely torched Republicans in Tuesday's midterms, flipping both the House and the Senate.
On Polymarket, Vance slid from about 37% to 31.4%, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis rocketed from around 3% to 15.5% , in a market that has drawn more than $726 million in bets. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vance's closest rival in the polls, barely moved at 19.2%, roughly where he sat before polls closed.
Kalshi shows the same shuffle: Vance at 32% and Rubio at 22%, both down slightly, while DeSantis is up 14 points to 19%. The selloff hit Tuesday night as results rolled in, hours before Vance offered his own autopsy on X Wednesday morning. "The reason we lost is the war," he wrote, as we reported earlier.