According to Andrew Korybko, the next trilateral talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine, scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi from November 10-11, could potentially lead to a grand deal if President Trump is willing to take certain steps. Jared Kushner, Trump's Special Envoy to Russia, has outlined the US's goals for the talks, including permanent security consultations and reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks.
Kushner has also stated that any arrangements must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of every nation, and that NATO will remain central to European collective defense. Korybko suggests that the US could "creatively coerce" Europe and Ukraine into making concessions by threatening to curtail energy exports to the EU and arms exports to Ukraine.
This approach, Korybko argues, would be a "plausibly deniable" means of achieving the US's goals, and would be in line with Trump's America First agenda. Russia, meanwhile, is expected to implement a legal workaround to formally end the conflict, and a partnership between the US, EU, and Ukraine could help maintain peace in the region.
The success of these talks, however, depends on Trump's willingness to take a strong stance and coerce Europe and Ukraine into making concessions. If he is able to do so, a lasting peace may be achievable. The talks are seen as a crucial step towards establishing a post-war European security architecture.