Prediction markets made an interesting shift in the aftermath of the 2026 midterm elections.
Websites like Kalshi and Polymarket cut Vice President JD Vance’s chances of securing the Republican presidential nomination while elevating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
This comes the day after Democrats seized control of the House and Senate in a series of upsets nationwide.
Vance still leads the nomination market at 27 percent, but that price is down eight points, according to Kalshi. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sits at 21 percent, down 3 points, and DeSantis is at 19 percent, up 14.6 points. The two-exchange averages tell the same story: Vance at 29 percent, Rubio at about 21 percent and DeSantis at 17 percent, according to DeFi Rate’s nominee tracker, observed Wednesday between 6:38 AM and 10:09 AM ET.
On Polymarket, Vance holds at about 31 percent, Rubio at 19 percent to 21 percent and DeSantis at 11 percent to 16 percent, with DeSantis’s price climbing through the morning, according to PredictMarketCap’s live cross-market tracker.
These numbers represent a significant change. On Sunday, Nov. 1, before a single midterm vote was counted, Vance traded at 35 to 36 cents on Kalshi and 38 to 38.4 cents on Polymarket, Rubio traded at about 20 cents on both exchanges, and DeSantis traded at under five cents on both, according to Scores and Stats.
The repricing started while returns were still coming in. By 11 PM ET on election night, Vance had fallen four points in three hours to 31 percent in Kalshi’s nominee market, while DeSantis jumped nearly 14 points in three hours, from about five percent to 19 percent.