Victor Davis Hanson, a senior contributor to The Daily Signal, discussed the upcoming midterms in a recent video. He noted that conventional wisdom has shifted in recent months, with polls and pundits now predicting that Republicans will lose the House and possibly the Senate.
Hanson pointed out that historical trends support this prediction, as the party in the White House typically loses seats in midterm elections, with only a few exceptions since 1900. Hanson cited the examples of FDR in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998, and George Bush in 2002, where the party in the White House gained seats despite historical trends.
He also noted that when a president's approval rating is below 40%, their party tends to perform poorly in midterms. However, Hanson argued that there are extenuating circumstances that could affect the outcome of the current midterms. One such circumstance is the precedent set by the 2022 midterms, where despite high inflation and foreign policy disasters, Joe Biden's party lost only nine seats in the House and gained one in the Senate.
Hanson suggested that the media's coverage of economic news may have played a role in this outcome, and that the current media narrative may be exaggerating the negative economic news. He also expressed skepticism about the reliability of polls, citing studies that suggest Republicans are often underrated by about four points.
Hanson concluded that these factors make it difficult to trust the polls entirely, and that the outcome of the midterms is still uncertain.