According to Victor Davis Hanson, a senior contributor to The Daily Signal, the Iran war may be entering its final phase. Hanson notes that despite claims that the war is lost, oil exports from the Gulf's exporting countries have remained at or near pre-war levels, with around 24 million barrels leaving the Gulf in the last three days.
He attributes any potential oil price increases to a bottleneck in refinement, rather than a lack of supply. Hanson suggests that a strike may be coming after the midterms, citing Iran's preparations to fortify bunkers and rumors of new weapons.
He also mentions President Donald Trump's desire to end the war after the midterms, which raises questions about the future of the conflict. Hanson notes that while the US has destroyed a significant number of Iranian drones and missiles, the total number of existing drones and missiles in the Iranian fleet before the war started is unknown.
The role of other countries, including China, Russia, and Turkey, in the conflict is also unclear, according to Hanson. He questions whether China and Russia are still supplying Iran with weapons, and notes that Turkey has opposed outside support for ethnic minorities in Iran.
The extent to which the US and its allies, including Israel and the Gulf states, will be able to work together to counter Iran's military capabilities is also an unknown factor in the conflict. Hanson's analysis highlights the complexity and uncertainty of the situation, with many factors still unknown or in flux.