Historian Victor Davis Hanson discussed the implications of the midterm election results on the 2028 presidential election in a recent interview. Hanson noted that the party in the White House typically loses House seats in midterm elections, with a 90% likelihood of loss since 1900.
He also stated that 75% to 80% of administrations lose Senate seats during midterm elections. Hanson drew comparisons to past presidents, such as Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, who suffered significant losses in their midterm elections but still maintained control and influence through executive orders and foreign policy decisions.
For example, Clinton bombed Serbia without congressional authority, and Obama recognized Cuba and entered into the Iran nuclear deal without Senate approval. Hanson suggested that the presidency has evolved into an "imperial presidency," allowing the president to exert significant influence despite congressional losses.
According to Hanson, the midterm election results may not significantly impact the president's ability to shape policy, particularly in foreign affairs. However, he noted that a Democratic majority in the Senate could prevent the confirmation of judges and Supreme Court justices.
Hanson also predicted that the Democrats may overreach in their actions, leading to a potential backlash. The outcome of the midterm elections will likely have significant implications for the 2028 presidential election, and Hanson's analysis provides insight into the potential consequences of the election results.